Pick a real tour player from this week’s field (OWGR-style list + recent strokes-gained when the sports-data project is wired). The page maps their SG profile into the same transparent Gaussian round engine you already trust for batch distributions and optional 36-hole cut survival.
PGA sim is free. Premium picks & +EV board — $29/mo (7-day trial) · Lifetime $249.99
Still a marginal round simulator: one Gaussian per 18 (or iid pair for 36) — not hole-by-hole, not correlated with the full field. When /api/pga/field returns fallback_json, numbers are curated placeholders until MCP tables (player_history / pga_player_history with SG columns) are live.
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Pick a venue archetype to tilt the sim toward the skills it rewards (e.g., approach venue upweights SG: Approach), or leave Neutral. Par & difficulty stay editable.
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Combined round σ = roundStress × √( (2.4×GIR)² + (1.9×Putt)² ). Constants are arbitrary scales so the sliders read like “importance weights,” not ShotLink.
Each MC trial sums two draws with the same μ and σ. The cut line is your story about the number that clears the weekend — not a modeled field.
Pulls /api/pga/props from live_edges. When the worker posts PGA rows, +EV markets show here with a deep link into the Prop MC lab.
Simulates the whole field jointly from each golfer's strokes-gained — shared AM/PM wave conditions, right-skew (blow-up) rounds, and a real top-65 + ties cut after R2. Returns win / top-5/10/20 / make-cut and the fair odds for each. Uses par + course-difficulty from the panel above.