MMA · ARENA SIM

Cage Monte Carlo

Pick a bout from your upcoming card JSON, or type odds manually. Market fair uses two-way de-vig. Cinema upset slides probability toward the underdog — maxed out, the dog wins ~97% of sims (pure spectacle: not a betting model). Method (KO/TKO · Sub · Dec) still spins from your style priors.

MMA sim is free. Premium picks & +EV board — $29/mo (7-day trial) · Lifetime $249.99

Upcoming card

Edit /data/mma-featured-event.json — use a fights[] array for a full card (see sample). Load reloads from disk on deploy.

—

Run a batch, then we spotlight one random finish from the distribution.

Red corner

Fighter A

—

Load a card

Blue corner

Fighter B

—

Odds & names

Red name

Blue name

Red american

Blue american

Cinema upset (underdog boost)

Underdog = lower implied win % from the posted moneylines. At 100%, sim uses ~97% win rate for that side (chalk gets starched every time).

Drama 0 % toward dog

Method priors (win-conditional)

Weights per corner — auto-normalized to sum to 1.

Red KO/TKO

Blue KO/TKO

Red Sub

Blue Sub

Red Dec

Blue Dec

Run Monte Carlo

Market P(red)

—

Sim P(red)

—

Dog side

—

Fair red ML

—

Fair blue ML

—

Full card sim (all bouts)

Each iteration simulates every bout on the loaded card (main + prelims). See also MMA DK lab.

CourtEdge does not claim this replaces fight IQ, tape, or injury news. “Cinema upset” is intentionally biased fiction for fun streams and visuals — keep the slider at 0 when you want honest de-vig math.