# DraftKings PGA Showdown — Round 4 strategy (CPT + 5 FLEX)

Sunday **Round 4 Showdown** is a single-round contest on golfers who **made the cut**. CourtEdge lab preset: **Showdown — Round 4 (Captain + 5 FLEX, made cut)**.

This is educational DFS theory, not betting advice.

## How R4 Showdown differs from classic

| | **Classic (Thu–Sun)** | **R4 Showdown** |
|---|----------------------|-----------------|
| Pool | ~120+ pre-cut | ~70–75 made cut only |
| Roster | 6 flex | **1 CPT (1.5× DK points)** + **5 FLEX** |
| Scoring | Four rounds cumulative | **Sunday round only** |
| Ownership | Spread across 4 days | One-wave leverage; CPT own% dominates |
| Game theory | Cut risk, weekend surge | Leaderboard position, tee wave, “playing for win” |

You are not pricing cut risk — you are pricing **Sunday ceiling** and **CPT leverage**.

## CPT selection (leverage, ceiling, ownership)

1. **Ceiling first** — CPT gets 1.5× points. In GPP you want the profile that can post a 12–15+ birdie/bogey mix day, not the safest 68.
2. **Ownership math** — CPT is often 25–45% on the favorite. Winning large fields usually needs either:
   - **Chalk CPT + low-owned flex stack** (correlated with the same wave), or
   - **Low-owned CPT** (15% or below) who spikes while chalk finishes T20.
3. **Leverage ≠ only cheap** — A $9k CPT with 8% own and win equity beats a punt with no path to 80+ DK points.
4. **Lab scoring** — With **Sharp GPP** on, CPT ranks blend ceiling, course fit, and field-tier ownership fade (`docs/PGA-SHARP-GPP.md`).

**Cash / single-entry:** Bias CPT toward highest **projection** with mild own fade; one chalk anchor in flex is fine.

## Stack correlations

- **Tee-time wave** — All six cannot share weather if waves split hard. Use **Stack calm wave** when windy; tag `wind_exposure` / `wave` in slate JSON.
- **Leaderboard narrative** — Leaders may play conservative; chasers more aggressive. Model that in ceiling, not only Thursday form.
- **Course fit** — Same as classic: distance vs accuracy vs putting for the venue (`course_id` in slate).
- **Avoid fake stacks** — Six names from the same country or brand ≠ correlation. Prefer **same wave** or **paired tee times** when conditions matter.

## GPP vs cash

| | **GPP (20/150-max)** | **Cash / 3-max** |
|---|---------------------|------------------|
| CPT | Ceiling + leverage | Highest mean projection |
| Flex | 1 chalk anchor + 1–2 low-owned levers | Stable projections |
| Own sum | Target band in lab (field-tier) | Do not over-fade chalk |
| Build | **Build GPP set** → **Sim all & rank** → **Export best CSV** | **Build SE lineup** or **SE: Build → Sim → Export** |
| Rank | **0.62×p99 + 0.38×p90** (showdown default) | Projection-led SE |

## Salary cap with 1.5× CPT

- CPT salary is **~1.5× flex** on DK; it counts fully toward the **$50k** cap.
- Leaving $800–$1.5k unused is common in GPP to upgrade one flex ceiling; forcing $49.8k is not required.
- **Punt flex** only when the player has realistic birdie equity — not just to pay up for CPT.

## Nightly data checklist

- DK Showdown R4 export: `Name`, `Salary`, `Captain Salary`, projections, ownership.
- `made_cut: true` for everyone in the pool; drop MC names.
- Import: `node scripts/import-pga-dk-showdown-paste.mjs --csv … --round 4` → deploy → **Reload slate** in lab.

See also: `PGA-SHOWDOWN-R4-SALARIES.md`, `PGA-SHARP-GPP.md`, `PGA-CONTEST-OWNERSHIP.md`.

## Six flex (no Captain) {#six-flex-no-captain}

Lab preset: **Round 4 — six flex (no Captain)** → `?preset=showdown-r4` · slate `data/pga-dk-slate-showdown-r4.json`.

Same made-cut Sunday field as CPT Showdown, but **all six roster spots score 1×** (no 1.5× captain). Moklovin pattern presets: `moklovin_se_flex` and `moklovin_mme_flex` in `data/pga-moklovin-pattern.json`.

### Single entry (6 FLEX)

| Slot | Target |
|------|--------|
| Chalk | **2** players **≥12%** projected ownership |
| Mid | **2** players **5–15%** own |
| Lever | **1** player **<5%** own |
| Flex spot | **1** — Rick live SG leader or second lever |
| Salary | **$49,000+** used |
| Cumulative own | **55–110%** sum across six |
| Low-owned floor | **2+** under **10%** own |

**Lab button:** Moklovin SE · 200 → Top 1% → #1 (contest profile = Moklovin).

**Default locks (play board):** Eric Cole · Russell Henley · Zach Bauchou — Rick Holy Grail + live board.

### 150-max MME (6 FLEX)

Every lineup in the portfolio should hit:

| Rule | Target |
|------|--------|
| Chalk ≥12% | **2–4** golfers |
| $5,800–6,600 flex | **2–3** golfers |
| Sub-8% lever | **≥1** |
| Cumulative own | **48–92%** |

**Lab buttons:** Quick build 150 · Moklovin MME · 100 fast → top 100.

### SE vs MME contrast

| Rule | SE (6 FLEX) | MME (6 FLEX) |
|------|-------------|--------------|
| Chalk ≥12% | 2 | 2–4 |
| Mid 5–15% own | 2 | 1–3 |
| Lever <8% | 1+ | 1+ |
| $6k flex band | 0–2 | 2–3 |
| Cum own | 55–110% | 48–92% |
| Salary floor | $49k+ | $49k+ |

### Rick live (Sunday)

Paste full R4 live table → `data/imports/rick-r4-live-sg-paste.txt` → `node scripts/import-rick-r4-live.mjs`.

- **Hot live TOT:** boost levers (e.g. Olesen, Glover, Streelman)
- **Cold live TOT:** fade unless contrarian thesis (Dahmen, Clanton)
- Tee times / groups drive wave stacks when wind splits

See `PGA-RICK-R4-LIVE.md` for column format.