# Charles Schwab Challenge — R3 Showdown plan of attack (May 30, 2026)

**Event:** Charles Schwab Challenge · Colonial Country Club · Fort Worth, TX  
**Slate:** R3 Showdown · Captain + 5 FLEX · 50-golfer post-cut board  
**Lab:** [pga-dk-lineup-lab?preset=showdown-r3-cpt](https://courtedge-brq.pages.dev/pga-dk-lineup-lab.html?preset=showdown-r3-cpt)  
**Weekend field:** [schwab-weekend-field](https://courtedge-brq.pages.dev/schwab-weekend-field.html)  
**Also:** [Core plays](./PGA-SHOWDOWN-R3-CORE-2026-05-30.md) · [Strategy deep-dive](./PGA-SHOWDOWN-R3-STRATEGY-2026-05-30.md) · [R2 recap](./PGA-SCHWAB-R2-RECAP-2026-05-29.md)

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## How Colonial has played (R1 + R2)

Colonial is living up to the pre-tournament thesis: **accuracy and iron play beat raw distance** on this tree-lined par-70 (7,209 yds). The Horrible Horseshoe (holes 3–5) continues to punish wild drivers; GIR and approach skill are the predictive stats that matter most (`course_id: colonial`, GIR difficulty index 0.62).

### Scoring environment

| Signal | R1 | R2 | Takeaway |
|--------|----|----|----------|
| **Winning pace** | Clustered −4 to −7 after Thu | Leaders ~−10 after Fri | Moderate scoring — not a birdie fest; ball-striking wins |
| **Wave split** | AM +7.4 avg re-rate · PM +6.4 | Chalk hit in **both** waves | Mild AM edge — **do not blanket-fade AM** |
| **Chalk thesis** | Aberg/Griffin/Henley/Fowler/JT all smashed | Confirmed again Fri | Classic: stay on or eat it · Showdown: 50-man board already trimmed |
| **Surprises** | Snedeker (+20.9), Higgo (+19.3), Kanaya (+18.7) | Low-owned dart boards popped | Thin R2 ceiling grades — lottery tickets, not MME anchors |
| **Misses** | Yellamaraju (−3.4), Kevin Yu (−2.9) | Ryder/Hojgaard/Springer underwhelmed | Cut-risk names — off R3 Showdown board |

### Leaderboard snapshot (post-R2)

After 36 holes the board is bunched near the top — Jordan Smith holds a one-shot lead at **−10** with Matsuyama, Harman, Thorbjornsen, and Gerard one back at **−9**. J.J. Spaun, Smalley, and Bhatia sit inside the top 10. Classic chalk (Aberg, Griffin, Henley) remains in the mix but **not** on the 50-man DK Showdown slate — R3 is a different game: single-round ceiling, updated salaries, and only made-cut names.

**Cut:** Official MC posted after Friday R2 (~65 + ties). R3 slate = **made-cut survivors** on the DK Showdown board. **Keith Mitchell MC** — removed from R3 slate; **Doug Ghim made cut**.

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## Plan of attack — Saturday R3 Showdown

### Game plan in one sentence

**Stack PM calm-wave levers (Ghim · Kim · Finau) with an AM spine (Im · Coody · Hisatsune · Smith), CPT the best leverage name you can afford, and never ship 100% chalk CPT without a sub-8% flex pair.**

### Stacks & correlation

| Stack type | Names | When to use |
|------------|-------|-------------|
| **PM calm wave** | Ghim · Finau · Kim | Default GPP — CE course-fit + sub-5% PM levers |
| **AM spine** | Im · Hisatsune · Coody · Smith · Cole | Cash floor + MME diversification; mild R1 AM scoring edge |
| **Leader-chase** | Smith · Matsuyama · Spaun | Only if on slate with R3 salary — pair with 2 levers, not 6 chalk |
| **Avoid** | 6 names, same country/brand | Fake correlation — prefer **same wave** or paired tee times |

Enable **Stack calm wave** in lab Rules when wind picks up (Colonial wind sensitivity ~0.55).

### Captain lean

| Contest | Primary CPT | Pivot CPT | Fade CPT |
|---------|-------------|-----------|----------|
| **SE GPP** | **Doug Ghim** (~4.6% own · best lever · PM) | **Pierceson Coody** (~6.8% own · AM CPT pivot) | Jaeger/Hoge (~24% own) without sub-8% flex pair |
| **Cash / 3-max** | **Sungjae Im** or **Ryo Hisatsune** (top proj · AM floor) | Ghim (if paying up for ceiling) | Pure punt CPT with no birdie path |
| **150-max MME** | Rotate Ghim / Coody / Kim / Smith CPT (~70% combined) | Mac Meissner · Chris Kirk | 100% field on Jaeger CPT |

**Captain math:** CPT scores at 1.5× DK points. Ghim at ~4.6% CPT own beats Jaeger at 24% when Kim + Smith are in the same lineup at sub-5% flex own.

### Leverage & ownership

- **Must-have exposure (70%+ MME):** Ghim · Coody · Kim · Smith  
- **Sub-8% lever rule:** Minimum **2** per GPP lineup (Ghim · Kim · Meissner · Cole · Olesen · Smith)  
- **Chalk anchors (1–2 per lineup):** Im · Greyserman · Finau · Hisatsune — floor without drowning leverage  
- **Classic-only note:** Aberg/Griffin/Henley are Classic weekend plays (`schwab-classic` preset), not on this 50-man Showdown board

### Fades (R3 Showdown)

| Golfer | Why fade |
|--------|----------|
| **Stephan Jaeger** | 24% own · negative FTN GPP score — fine flex in cash, bad as **auto-CPT** in MME |
| **Tom Hoge** | Same chalk trap as Jaeger (~25% own) |
| **Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen** | 15% own · thin ceiling grade for salary |
| **Erik Van Rooyen** | 17% own · negative FTN GPP · better value elsewhere |
| **Johnny Keefer** | 11% own with middling ceiling — OK at 0%, not an anchor |
| **Sudarshan Yellamaraju / Kevin Yu / Sam Ryder** | Pre-cut misses — not on R3 board |

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## Core 5–10 for single-entry GPP

Built with **Moklovin SE methodology:** **10,000 lineups → MC sim → rank by field top-1% (Win %) → take #1**.

| # | Golfer | Role | Why |
|---|--------|------|-----|
| 1 | **Doug Ghim** | Flex / **CPT lean** | ~4.6% own · PM calm wave · best lever on the board |
| 2 | **Pierceson Coody** | Flex / CPT | AM spine · 6.8% own · FTN GPP green |
| 3 | **Tom Kim** | Flex / CPT | Sub-5% · PM · strong value/$1k |
| 4 | **Jordan Smith** | Flex / CPT | Leader at −10 · 4.8% own · contrarian AM |
| 5 | **Sungjae Im** | Chalk flex | Floor anchor · AM · 17% own |
| 6 | **Ryo Hisatsune** | Chalk flex | 50.2 proj · AM spine |
| 7 | **Mac Meissner** | Lever | 4.3% own · AM dart ceiling |
| 8 | **Eric Cole** | Lever | 3.3% own · AM value |
| 9 | **Tony Finau** | PM chalk | 49.7 proj · calm wave floor |
| 10 | **Chris Kirk** | Lever | 8.7% own · pivot off pure chalk |

**Cash core (if playing double-ups):** Im · Hisatsune · Greyserman · Finau · Coody — lab **Build Cash**.

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## Moklovin SE workflow (10K → top 1% → #1)

1. Open [pga-dk-lineup-lab?preset=showdown-r3-cpt](https://courtedge-brq.pages.dev/pga-dk-lineup-lab.html?preset=showdown-r3-cpt)  
2. **Reload slate** — confirm **50 golfers · Colonial** in status bar  
3. Play board: **Lock 4 core** (Ghim · Kim · Coody · Smith) — never all 6 must-haves (salary deadlock)  
4. **SE GPP:** **Moklovin SE · 10,000 → Win% → #1**  
5. **MME 150-max:** **Youdadao MME · 1,000 → top 150** → upload CSV to DK  
6. Optional: **Apply standings** paste in lab for live `score_to_par` mid-round (see [PGA-SHOWDOWN-STANDINGS.md](./PGA-SHOWDOWN-STANDINGS.md))

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## Slate refresh checklist

1. After cut locks Fri: confirm [weekend field](https://courtedge-brq.pages.dev/schwab-weekend-field.html) matches DK board  
2. Paste official DK **R3 Showdown** CSV → `node scripts/import-pga-dk-showdown-paste.mjs --round 3`  
3. Regenerate play board: `node scripts/build-pga-showdown-r3-play-board.mjs`  
4. Deploy: `bash scripts/quick-deploy-pga.sh`

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*Data: FTN Showdown salaries/proj/own, DataGolf R2 forward projections, CE course-fit blend (`data/pga-colonial-course-history.json`). Regenerate: `SLATE_DATE=2026-05-30 node scripts/generate-pga-weekend-field.mjs`.*