Sunday 9-game main slate. We're going GS-style: 5-stack + secondary 3, top SP anchor + sub-$7K leverage, max ceiling over safety. Plus the 1000-lineup MME blueprint.
Nine games. Jacob Misiorowski ($11,600) is the alpha — 22.6 projection, the highest ceiling on the board by 5+ points. Against him on cheap SP: Sean Burke ($6,400) projects 15.6 and is essentially free money at $7,500 below the Misiorowski tier. Pair them and you've got $1,000 to spend on each hitter slot — which forces you into a real 5-3 or 4-3 stack rather than spreading thin. That structure IS the GS playbook tonight.
HOU @ MIL · KC @ TEX · LAA @ TB · MIA @ NYM · MIN @ PIT · BOS @ CLE · CWS @ DET · ATL @ CIN · SD @ WSH
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🎯 The GS SE Lineup — VERIFIED $49,800
This is a single-entry build for cash + 3-max GPP. Built ceiling-first (target: top 1% finishing potential), 5-3-1-1 structure, dual pitcher pair (Misiorowski ace + Junk leverage), and a SD secondary stack that's 5-10% lower owned than the chalk ATL stack.
| Pos | Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Ceil |
|---|
| P | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | HOU | $11,600 | 22.6 | 36.2 |
| P | Janson Junk | MIA | NYM | $6,900 | 14.1 | 22.6 |
| OF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | CIN | $5,500 | 11.0 | 17.5 |
| 2B | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | WSH | $4,500 | 10.1 | 16.1 |
| OF | Michael Harris II | ATL | CIN | $4,400 | 9.7 | 15.4 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | SD | WSH | $4,100 | 8.1 | 13.0 |
| 3B | Austin Riley | ATL | CIN | $4,100 | 8.6 | 13.8 |
| C | Carter Jensen | KC | TEX | $3,200 | 6.9 | 11.0 |
| 1B | Gavin Sheets | SD | WSH | $3,100 | 8.2 | 13.1 |
| OF | Nick Castellanos | SD | WSH | $2,400 | 7.1 | 11.4 |
| TOTAL | $49,800 | 106.4 | 170.2 |
Stack pattern: SD ×4 (Tatis/Bogaerts/Sheets/Castellanos) + ATL ×3 (Acuña/Harris/Riley) + leverage punt at C (Jensen).
Why this build wins top 1%
- Misiorowski is mathematically chalkproof. His ceiling (36.2) is 5+ points above the next-best SP. Even at 25-30% ownership, you must play him — you cannot afford to bet against the slate's clearest edge in a high-variance contest.
- Junk at SP2 is the contrarian unlock. While 80% of the field pays $8,500+ for McClanahan/Bibee/Strider, we save $1,600-$2,000 and reinvest into the SD stack. Junk against the Mets has K-upside (Mets struggle vs LHP), and his miss leaves us with 9 hitters whose ceiling still wins.
- SD secondary stack is the leverage. Tatis/Bogaerts/Sheets/Castellanos run $14,100 combined — that's $3,525 per hitter for a stack against Zack Littell (10.36 SP proj — a back-end SP with no out-pitch). The implied team total for SD tonight is 5.0+ runs. The field will be on ATL/TB/CIN. We get a top-5 stack with 8-12% combined ownership.
- Castellanos at $2,400 is a free roll. 7.14 projection at minimum salary opens cap room everywhere else. He hits 6th for the Padres.
The 200-max MME blueprint (MK/GS hybrid)
If you're firing 200-max or higher, here's the structure we use:
| Layer | What we lock | Rationale |
|---|
| 1. Pitcher | Misiorowski in 60% of lineups; rotate McLean/Leiter/Bibee in remaining 40% | Exposure cap protects you if he disappoints, but the math forces him to your core |
| 2. Anchor stack | 4-5 from ATL or TB or CIN (rotate which is primary) | Spreads exposure across the top 3 stacks instead of all-in chalk |
| 3. Secondary stack | 2-3 from SD, MIL, WSH, or TEX | Leverage tier — these stacks underowned relative to projection |
| 4. Punts | Castellanos, Will Benson, Colt Keith — sub-$2,500 with 6+ proj | Frees cap for top stacks. Castellanos batting 6th in SD is the #1 punt. |
Our 200-lineup CSV (downloadable in the lab) follows this exact pattern.
🎯 Leverage targets (sub-15% ownership, top-30% ceiling)
- Sean Burke ($6,400 SP) — 15.6 proj. The single best $/proj value on the slate. Will be 8-12% owned because the field doesn't trust CWS rotation. We do.
- Nathaniel Lowe ($3,300 1B-CIN) — 7.36 proj. Hits cleanup for CIN. ~7% owned because he's not "exciting." We don't need exciting at $3,300.
- Spencer Steer ($3,900 1B/2B-CIN) — 7.69 proj. Multi-position eligibility unlocks lineup construction.
- Will Benson ($2,000 OF-CIN) — 8.10 proj at minimum salary. The slate's #1 cap-relief play. If CIN stacks bat through, Benson gets ABs.
- Daylen Lile ($4,700 OF-WSH) — 7.79 proj. WSH stack 4th piece — ownership <5%.
- Konnor Griffin ($4,300 SS-PIT) — 7.36 proj. PIT secondary stack anchor against Matthews.
❌ Fades — players the field will overpay for
- Spencer Strider ($10,300 SP-ATL) — Reds bats are hot. His K-upside is real but he's giving up runs to De La Cruz/Stewart/Bleday. Pay $2,300 less for Bibee or save the $3,900 vs Burke. Don't pay top-tier price for medium-tier matchup.
- Bobby Witt Jr ($5,500 SS-KC) — Wacha-Leiter is a low-total game. Witt's ceiling is capped against Leiter K-stuff. Tatis at $4,500 is the better SS play.
- Brandon Lowe ($5,600 2B-PIT) — PIT secondary stack but at chalk price. Lowe in our build = Sheets/Castellanos out, which kills our edge.
- Mike Trout ($5,400 OF-LAA) — vs McClanahan. Cold matchup. Skip.
- Byron Buxton ($5,900 OF-MIN) — vs Ashcraft, who's quietly good. Buxton's projection (7.76) doesn't justify the $5,900 price tag when Wood ($6,200, 10.91 proj) exists at the same OF slot.
Methodology — the 4-layer approach we used
Our edge is layering data sources rather than relying on any single one:
- FTN Projections — base projection + ceiling + value
- Stack scoring — total team hitter projection across multiple hitters (catches stacks the chalk model misses)
- Cap math — verified ≥$49,800 / ≤$50,000 on every lineup, max 5 per team
- Ceiling-weighted Monte Carlo — top-finishing potential, not just expected value (this is the GS difference)
"Cash builds optimize for floor. GS-style builds optimize for the 95th percentile outcome. They're different math problems. Tonight's SE lineup is built for the 95th percentile — it loses badly in a 50/50 if the SD stack busts, but it's a top-100 finish in any GPP where they hit 3-4 HRs as a unit." — CourtEdge research notes
How to use this tonight — step by step
- For cash / 3-max: upload the GS SE lineup above directly to DK. One entry, max ceiling, no rotation.
- For 20-max: use our top-20 CSV (in the lab). Same Misiorowski/Burke pitcher core, rotating ATL/TB/CIN as primary stack.
- For 150-max or 200-max: use the MME200 CSV. Diversifies exposure across the top 8 stacks but keeps Misiorowski as the anchor.
- For 1000-max+: the MME1000 CSV is your full deployment. Includes the contrarian builds (3-3-2-2 alternates) for upside leverage.
Track record — keeping it honest
Where we stand entering tonight: +23.38% ROI across 40 graded picks in the last 30 days. Our biggest win this week: PGA R4 Showdown writeup with Cole/Aberg/Bhatia core. Worst miss: yesterday's K/9 prop on Bibee (he scratched a start). Article history is at courtedge.net.
The takeaway
Misiorowski's ceiling is the slate. Burke's value is the unlock. SD's secondary stack is the leverage. Acuña/Harris/Riley is the anchor. We're not the only ones who see Misiorowski — but the SD pairing is where we win.
If you fade one team tonight, fade BOS (low team total + Suarez vs Bibee duel = low pace). If you stack one team, stack SD (it's the leverage of the slate). If you play one cheap pitcher, play Burke.
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